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To learn more about the Stock Picks List,
and how it can work for you, see
below.
What is the
Stock Picks List?
The Stock Picks List is a select list of approximately 50 to 100 undervalued
stocks, each picked quarterly by our Value Investing Model. The Model
actively screens over 2,000 NYSE companies. At the beginning of each calendar
quarter, a new Stock Picks List is published on the StockValuePicks.com
website.
Stocks are initially added to the Stock Picks List as "buy" recommendations,
carried forward to the next Stock Picks List as continuing buy or "hold"
recommendations, and eventually deleted as "sell" recommendations. In
general, stock picks and recommendations do not change until the next quarterly
publication of the Stock Picks List. The rare (and only) exception occur when
there is a special alert changing a buy or hold recommendation to a sell recommendation
during the current quarter, due to (i) the rising market price for the stock, (ii) a
sharply negative earnings announcement by the company during the quarter, or (iii)
de-listing of the stock by the NYSE usually due to a takeover of the company by another
company.
The Stock Picks List is ready to be used "as is". All stock picks
on the List have been screened and found to be undervalued (in the case of buy
recommendations) or have recently been undervalued (in the case of hold or sell
recommendations); some stocks are significantly undervalued.
The Stock Picks List displays each stock pick in the following format, with
a buy,
hold or sell recommendation and summary data values for each of the Company
Selection Factors that the Model used to select the stock:
| Company | Symbol |
Trend1 |
History2 |
Upside3 |
Stability4 |
Recommendation |
| XYZ CORP. |
XYZ | 16 | 18 |
10 | 94% | BUY |
| |
| Company Selection Factors |
| 1Trend | |
- | length of time-series data considered, in years |
| 2History | |
- | consecutive quarters that the stock has been picked |
| 3Upside | |
- | unrealized leverage of the stock; higher numbers
mean more upside price potential |
| 4Stability | |
- | R-square of earnings relative to trend line; higher
percentages mean more earnings stability |
In addition, the Stock Picks List includes a hyperlink to the Company
Website and these four downloadable Company Graphs for each of the
stock picks:
| Stock-Price Trend | Earnings Trend |
 |
 |
| Recent Quarterly Results | Price-Earnings Regression |
 |
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How Do You Use
the Stock Picks List?
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| 1. | Buy a stock if it has a "buy"
recommendation, i.e., when the stock is significantly undervalued.
Note: In the case of stocks that have a "hold"
recommendation, you
have missed your opportunity to buy these stocks when they were significantly
undervalued and had a buy recommendation on earlier editions of the Stock
Picks List.
To select stocks
from the List, you can either:
Your stock buying decisions should always incorporate some basic analysis of
your existing stock portfolio and other
investment assets, so that you balance risks and build diversity of
investments. One commonly used technique is to select stocks of
companies operating in different industries or economic sectors.
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| 2. |
Sell a stock when it has a "sell" recommendation on the
next quarterly Stock Picks List or if there is a special alert changing its buy
or hold recommendation to a sell recommendation during the current quarter.
Note: The Stock Picks List is not a day-trading or market-timing
tool. The average holding period for stocks on past Stock Picks List
is between one and two years, but the history of each stock is unique. You can
check the holding period for each stock pick on the current Stock Picks List by
looking at the "History" value of the stock found on the Stock Picks List.
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| 3. |
Reinvest your sales proceeds and dividends according to the Reinvesment
Strategy table appearing on the current Stock Picks List. |
The Performance Results and Author's Own Results pages of this Website
show the results of using the Stock Picks List.
Click below if you want us now to:
To learn more about the Stock Picks List,
and how it can work for you, see
below.
How Do
I Customize My Stock Selection?
If you are analytically inclined, you can customize your stock
selections from the Stock Picks List to fit your personal investment strategy and
your existing stock portfolio,
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by making your own evaluation of the Company Selection
Factors and the Company Graphs we provide, for example by
assigning more or less weight to one or more of the Factors; |
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by using other information available only to you, such
as the composition of your current stock portfolio, your other
investment assets, and your financial resources available for
stock investing; |
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by using other investment information sources, such as
company websites, financial newspapers, libraries, and
an investment adviser if appropriate; |
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by selecting a
random or planned sample of stocks from the Stock Picks List
(see How Many Stocks
Should I Purchase? below). |
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How Does the Free Trial
Work?
When you submit your first Request Form, you get free and
unlimited access to the StockValuePicks.com website and the Stock Picks
List with its accompanying graphics and company data for two calendar
quarters.
We are giving you this lengthy free-trial use of these powerful
value-investing tools because we are confident that, after using the Stock Picks
List, you will want to continue to receive
it to keep your personal portfolio of stocks
updated and consistent with the Model's selected stocks. We recommend that
you use the Stock Picks List for at least six months to realize optimal test
results.
How and When Do You
Subscribe?
The Subscription Price for the Stock Picks List after your free
two-quarters trial
period has expired, is only $29.95 per quarter payable by Visa or Mastercard.
You simply add your credit card information to the next Request Form that you submit after
the free-trial period and update the other information as needed on that Request Form and
on each additional Request Form that you send to us. Creditcard
information is not retained by us, except to execute the purchase.
With each quarterly subscription, you will be able to view or download the
Stock Picks List with its accompanying graphics and company data as often as you
want during the next three months at no additional charge.
Click below if you want us now to:
To learn more about the Stock Picks List,
and how it can work for you, see
below.
How Many
Stocks Should I Purchase?
The optimal number of stocks to select from the Stock Picks List depends on your
personal situation: your financial resources, your need or desire to diversify your
total investment portfolio, and the amount of brokerage commissions and other transaction
costs you are willing to bear in order to achieve diversification. For example,
buying a single share of the stock of each company on the Stock Picks List would be a
diversified approach but it would not be efficient in terms of brokerage fees. On
the other hand, acquiring 100 shares of each of the company stocks on the Stock Picks List
would be efficient for purposes of lowering per share brokerage costs, but it might not be
realistic from a budget standpoint nor prudent as an initial investment.
Somewhere between these two extremes is the optimal approach for you.
To help you make the right decision for your personal situation, we provide
the following sampling distribution statistics based on the Model's performance
results during the First Quarter 2002, as compared to the end of the previous
quarter:
| Number of buy and hold stocks on the Stock Picks List |
| 88 | |
| Model's performance results during 1Q of 2002 | | +7.1% |
|---|
If you had purchased
the "buy" stocks of: |
You had a 86% chance
that your results
were between: |
You had a 94% chance
that your results
were between: |
|---|
| 8 Companies | 4.1% and 10.2% |
1.2% and 13.2% | | 10 Companies |
4.4% and 9.8% | 1.7% and
12.5% |
| 12 Companies | 4.7% and 9.5% |
2.3% and 12.0% | | 18 Companies |
5.2% and 9.0% | 3.3% and
10.9% |
Each of the above results compares favorably with the performance of the
recognized market averages during the First Quarter 2002:
| S&P 500 Index | -0.1% |
| Dow Jones Industrials | +3.8% |
| Dow Jones Composite | +5.3% |
| NASDAQ Composite | -5.4% |
| Wilshire 5000 Index | +0.6% |
| Russell 2000 Index | +3.7% |
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You can reduce the chance of an extreme result by increasing the number
of companies on the Stock Picks List that are in your portfolio. However,
remember that statistics only measure of the mathematical probability that
an event will occur. There is no such thing as a "statistical
certainty".
Click below so we can:
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